The word “unfortunately” was used a lot in a presentation on the outlook for Arizona’s Colorado River water to the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association board of directors.
“Unfortunately, the dramatic headlines are accurate,” AMWUA Director Warren Tenney told the board during its Aug. 27 meeting.
It was the board’s first meeting since the federal government finalized a 10-year framework of how to share water between the seven Colorado River basin states as well as 2027-28 operating guidelines.
The silver lining, AMWUA staff said, is the two-year operating guidelines through 2028 are less severe and, unlike the 10-year framework, took into consideration much of the recommendations of the three Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada.
The 10-year framework requires the Lower Basin states to collectively cut 3 million acre-feet from their Colorado River water use per year. The two-year operating guidelines only require 1.25 million acre-feet per year, along with an additional 700,000 acre-feet of water voluntarily stored in Lake Mead over the next two years.
There is also a potential for harsher cuts in the next two years if the Colorado River system continues to have dry winters like the one it just had. Under the most extreme of those weather projections, there would not be enough water flowing in the Central Arizona Project canal to continue to bring Colorado River water to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.
“Yes, we have been preparing for shortages on the Colorado River, but the acceleration of the worsening hydrology and the federal government deciding on a plan that says they are willing to let CAP go dry, has been a stunning, heavy blow,” Tenney said.
The Central Arizona Project canal carries water from the Colorado River to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.
Courtesy Central Arizona Project
Arizona, which has the lowest priority of the seven states on the river, will bear the brunt of those with 760,000 acre-feet reduced from its Colorado River allotment, which would be about a 20% reduction for CAP’s municipal and industrial users. Still, there were other possibilities under the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s proposals that would have hit Arizona much harder.
“They are still the biggest cuts we have ever had, and they are still our best-case scenario,” Tenney said about the two-year operating guidelines.
Arizona does not entirely rely on the Colorado River for water. Most Valley cities also receive was from the Salt River Project that comes from the Salt and Verde rivers, as well as a smaller percentage coming from groundwater.
For the city of Phoenix, 58% of its water supply is from SRP, 40% is from the Colorado River through CAP and 2% is from groundwater. Some reclaimed wastewater is also used for nonpotable uses like irrigation and power generation.
Short-term stop-gap plans for many Arizona cities will include drawing on water stored underground.
Importantly, the more agreeable two-year guidelines will give Arizona water officials some time to argue their case for the federal government to restructure the 10-year agreement to be kinder to Arizona. It also gives the state time to plan for the possibility of harsher water cuts.
“That leaves us with maybe two years to ramp up our actions to ensure that we can live with less water,” said AMWUA Water Policy Adviser Paul Bergelin.
There is also a possibility the cuts required to Arizona could be slightly less — 14% of a cut to municipal and industrial users instead of 20% — due to two CAP projects at Lake Pleasant and Yuma-area drainage wells.
That would be a very optimistic scenario that state water officials are not counting on, however, Bergelin said.
On the other hand, if water levels at Lake Mead or Lake Powell fall below critical elevations, Arizona and the other Lower Basin states could be required to take on more cuts.
“Unfortunately, our circumstances lean more toward the concerning end,” Bergelin said.
He said it’s looking “increasingly likely” that the reservoirs could fall below those elevations.
Lake Mead’s elevation is currently 1,039 feet. The federal government plans to keep it above 1,010 feet, which provides a 20-foot buffer to maintain critical operations for the Hoover Dam. Without intervention, it could drop below 1,010 feet by June, Bergelin said. Lake Mead could also be impacted by low releases from Lake Powell as it seeks to maintain its water level.
Lake Powell is currently at 3,519 feet of elevation. If it falls below 3,490 feet, the Glen Powell Dam would stop being able to produce hydroelectric power and would not be able to do any long-term releases of water. There are tunnels that can release water under that point, but they cannot continuously release water “without risking severe infrastructure damage, which could basically render the dam unusable.”
The federal government wants to also keep a 20-foot buffer at Lake Powell, keeping elevations at 3,510 or higher. Worst-case hydrology projections show the lake could dip below that height in December.
The federal government is “laser-focused” on protecting Glen Canyon Dam and its infrastructure, Bergelin said.
Already historic cuts to Arizona’s Colorado River water could get worse if either reservoir sinks below those key elevations.
“What we have ahead of us is a bit of a tough year, or the potential to be a bit of a tough year,” Bergelin said.
Bergelin said Arizona residents, businesses, media, investors and bond rating agencies all have “a lot of concern and apprehension… about how cuts impact all of us,” he said.
Bergelin showed the board a statement from the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, saying that some ratings in Arizona “are unlikely to move higher” until there is more certainty around the state’s long-term water supply. Other credit rating agencies had released similar statements, Bergelin said.
Moving forward
AMWUA’s mission is to demonstrate that its cities are preparing to live with less Colorado River water. Next steps will include administration of water saved in the Arizona Banking Authority, flexibility in utilizing water supplies to meet demands, have consistent messaging to the public and to develop new water supplies.
One way Valley cities are planning to be flexible using water supplies is the new SWAP system, Secure Water Arizona Program. It would never force water reallocation but would connect willing buyers and sellers in the spirit of mutual aid. Bergelin also previewed that more flexibility efforts would be discussed at the September AMWUA Board meeting.
For public messaging, Bergelin said AMWUA cities should have a consistent mantra: “A shortage on the river should not mean a shortage at the tap,” Bergelin said.
Most important of the future actions is to develop new water supplies, Bergelin said. Valley cities need to not just ensure the public there is enough water to meet short-term demand as the state receives less Colorado River water over the next 10 years but also that new supplies are coming to offset Colorado River losses.
“Those supplies will be needed not just to meet current demands, not just to offset Colorado River reductions, but also to ensure that we avoid long-term groundwater overdraft and that we can continue to do what we’ve been doing for the past decades, which is to grow responsibly,” Bergelin said.
Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.
Mark Carlisle
Associate Editor | Phoenix
mcarlisle@iniusa.org
Meet Mark
Mark Carlisle joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2017, covering Glendale. He has since moved to the Daily Independent team, primarily covering the city of Phoenix along with other topics affecting the Valley at-large.
Community: Mark enjoys taking his young son to BabyTime at the Phoenix Public Library, to the OdySea Aquarium and to various sporting events around the Valley.
Education: Chapman University with a BA in English Journalism and one in Screenwriting.
Random Fact: Mark worked at a tuxedo shop in college. Just don’t ask him to tie a bowtie.
Hobbies: Spending time with his wife, son and dog, watching sports and TV shows, listening to audiobooks and occasionally writing fiction or designing a board game.
By 
Comments
No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here