As the seven states that share Colorado River water face a Feb. 14 deadline to reach an agreement on water rights beyond 2026, Arizona state water leaders on Tuesday painted a dire picture of what the worst-case scenarios would look like for Arizona under the proposals on the table.
State water leaders said it was possible Arizona could sue other states or the federal government if they believe other states are in violation of their water obligations, but officials also said they hoped that could be avoided by striking a more agreeable deal.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the river's water rights, has put out a draft plan with several alternatives. All of them include Arizona and the other Lower Basin states taking cuts with zero cuts required for the Upper Basin states.
Arizona is first in line for cuts because it was given junior priority as part of the 1968 agreement that funded the Central Arizona Project to bring water from the river to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.
“They are claiming that there could be major, major cuts to the Valley, to the Tucson area,” said CAP General Manager Brenda Burman during Tuesday’s meeting of the Arizona Reconsultation Committee. “That is not acceptable. The entire weight of the river cannot fall on Arizona and on the Valley and Tucson in particular.”
Tuesday’s meeting featured representatives from CAP, the Arizona Department of Water Resources, many municipalities and tribes and other water governing bodies in the state.
Gov. Katie Hobbs gave a statement to start the meeting off, referencing meetings with other basin states and the Bureau of Reclamation over the weekend. She said every state agreed the talks were productive.
The Colorado River is facing historic shortages due to decades of drought, and the negotiated water rights only last through the end of 2026. States are trying to reach an agreement on rights for 2027 and beyond, but the Bureau of Reclamation could step in and decide rights for 2027 if an agreement is not met by Feb. 14.
Burman said the seven states have discussed a phased approach: agreeing to a one- to five-year deal as a stopgap while they negotiate a longer-term agreement, probably around 20 years.
The Bureau of Reclamation is encouraging states to meet as often as possible before Feb. 14 to try to reach a deal.
“We don’t know what’s going to happen on Feb. 14,” said ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke.
This Central Arizona Project graphic shows that so far this winter, the snowpack and runoff to the watershed is on track to be among the lowest of the 21st century. However, the worst winter of the century was 2002 when reservoirs were healthy. Today, they are depleted.
(Courtesy CAP)
Intervention on the river system may be needed before the end of 2026, as well. CAP staff showed that so far this winter, the snowpack and runoff to the watershed is on track to be among the lowest of the 21st century. However, the worst winter of the century was 2002 when reservoirs were healthy. Today, they are depleted.
Under the worst-case projection, Lake Powell could reach dead pool — where water levels are too low to flow out of the reservoir — before the end of 2026.
Low water levels at Wahweap Bay at Lake Powell along the Upper Colorado River Basin are pictured, June 9, 2021, at the Utah and Arizona border at Wahweap.
(The Associated Press/Ross D. Franklin)
Hobbs said Arizona is committed to take a 27% cut to its share of Colorado River water, and expects the Upper Basin States to come to the table and agree to cuts before Arizona will agree to anything further. She also said some of the fuller reservoirs in the Upper Basin should release some water to help Lake Powell.
This Central Arizona Project graphic shows that Lake Powell is at 27% of its capacity, Lake Mead at 34% while several of the reservoirs in the upper basin are much fuller.
(Courtesy CAP)
Under the Bureau of Reclamation’s draft plan, the alternative that would require the most cuts to leave water in the river system — the Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative — would cut 98% of CAP’s allocation.
“In that alternative, they propose to take us off the map,” Burman said about CAP.
Arizonans should not be worried about the water coming out of their taps, Buschatzke said. The state has other water resources besides the Colorado River, mainly the Salt and Verde rivers via the Salt River Project and the Arizona Water Banking Authority, which has more than 4 million acre-feet underground.
“We’ve been planning for this for a very long time,” Buschatzke said.
The Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — and Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — have each been allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water per year. The Upper Basin states have argued because they have historically not used that entire allocation while the Lower Basin states usually do, they should not receive as much in mandatory cuts to replenish the river system.
Buschatzke first took issue with some bookkeeping of what consists of a cut. Some of the cuts involved water rights documents, which did not actually result in water flowing down the Colorado River to the Lower Basin states. Regarding a particular rainy season, such as 1983, Buschatzke said it was “disingenuous” to view any use below that rainy year as a cut.
Moreover, he said the 7.5 million acre-feet is only one of two caps on the Upper Basin states. The other cap is that, under Colorado River Compact of 1922, they must allow 75 million acre-feet flow to the Lower Basin states over a 10-year period. A 2012 update expanded that to add an annual allocation to flow to Mexico.
Burman said a rough equation of where that new obligation falls for the Upper Basin states is around 82.5 million acre-feet over 10 years. She showed three projections of what the Upper Basin states might release in the next water year, which starts Oct. 1, and two of the three fall below that 82.5 million acre feet obligation and in breach of the Colorado River Compact.
“Sobering news. Something that hasn’t happened before. Our Upper Basin neighbors have always met that obligation in the past,” Burman said.
Buschatzke and Burman both indicated Arizona could bring a lawsuit against other states or the federal government in a scenario like this but hoped it could be avoided negotiations this month.
Buschatzke said he would consider requesting Hobbs authorize a waiver of some of Arizona’s water rights under those old treaties but only if the Upper Basin states were willing to give much more in negotiations than they are now.
Phoenix Water Resources Management Adviser Maxwell Wilson criticized the Bureau of Reclamation for the lack of economic analysis of how their proposals would impact Arizona cities. By the city of Phoenix’s analysis, 99% of Arizona’s economy is not forecasted in Reclamation’s report, Wilson said.
The nation needs the Colorado River basin to succeed, Wilson said. He pointed to the lettuce produced in Yuma, the semiconductors produced in Phoenix and the Arizona’s obligations to its tribes.
“This is not an issue just for Arizona. If you live in Iowa, this document’s a problem for you. If you live in New York, this document’s a problem for you. And we have to make sure that the people in New York and in Iowa know that,” Wilson said.
Phoenix is working on a comment letter and is inviting other Arizona cities to sign on if they are interested.
Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.
Mark Carlisle
Associate Editor | Phoenix
mcarlisle@iniusa.org
Meet Mark
Mark Carlisle joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2017, covering Glendale. He has since moved to the Daily Independent team, primarily covering the city of Phoenix along with other topics affecting the Valley at-large.
Community: Mark enjoys taking his two young sons to parks, the Phoenix Zoo, the Phoenix Public Library and other fun events around the Valley. He also participates in a local book club.
Education: Chapman University with a BA in English Journalism and one in Screenwriting.
Random Fact: Mark worked at a tuxedo shop in college. Just don’t ask him to tie a bowtie.
Hobbies: Spending time with his wife, sons and dog, watching sports and TV shows, listening to audiobooks and occasionally writing fiction or designing a board game.
By 
Comments
No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here